COVID-19: What is government hiding by asking people to stay at home?

I’m sure we're all overwhelmed with the volume of news especially in the other media these days of an unprecedented outbreak. I guess, and as someone also observed, the real problem is neither the virus itself nor the loads of information that get dumped on us. The real problem that is by far bigger than the virus itself is the “viral loads” of fake news or wrong information that go viral across social media platforms as well commissioned and non-commissioned news mongers. Equally menacing like the menace of fake news is the hysteria about updates. It is shocking how much people want to be the first to share updates on the number of deaths or numbers of new cases!.  I can’t help wondering how badly people must really need to know so much, so fast to warrant such speed and dedication to announcing the numbers of deaths! I suppose however that we will not be so eager to break the news if it happens close to home – I dare say.

Someone recently said that if you do not work in the mortuary, keeping count of COVID-19 deaths may not be good for mental health reasons. I quite agree with this opinion and this is why, and this can be verified; the human mind is created to rejoice about good news and sorrow over bad news or not too pleasant news. In order to enliven our spirits and increase our level of happiness and immunity in these trying and gloomy times, it makes sense that we pay less attention to the number of deaths and more attention to more positive things like the fact that we are alive and seize every opportunity to seek happy, joyous and spirit lifting news. It is a known fact that engaging in any form of exercise (physical or mental) or simply taking enough rest or sleep and eating good healthy meals can improve immunity and happiness especially at times like this. Above all, we have been advised that the simplest inexpensive route out of this situation continue to be the need to keep proper hygiene and stay away from crowds.

You may wonder how despite the size of the problem, all we get as advice is “wash your hand”, “maintain social distancing” “stay at home”. A truth that I learnt recently is that these suggestions only appear simply when you look at them on the surface; when you see this pandemic are their problem, when the mishap is yet far from home. There is more to these things than washing hands, keeping away or staying at home. These seemingly simple suggestions are in fact golden when you pay attention to how this virus spreads. Although happily, there are no evidence that it can stay in the air for long enough to be air borne, interestingly but not funny, a few droplets of nasal discharge from sneezing or coughing from an infected person that get onto most surfaces can wreak havoc.

Again, one of the dangers in the way the new virus spreads is from people who may have contracted the virus but do not yet show symptoms. So, for example, Mr A has the virus but feels he is alright, so he took the bus or went to the office or a public event or place. He sneezes or coughs into his hands and use the hand to touch surfaces around him. The chances are high that other people will touch the same surfaces that Mr A touched and from then on, they also become infected and as many surfaces as they touch and as many people after them that touch those surfaces are your guesses as to how many people can get the virus through a single person. Still on the issue of symptoms, an infected person without symptoms (at all or yet) is more lethal than a person who has already come down with the sickness. This is why, if we all see a person coughing or sneezing unusually, we will most likely take cover and avoid contact. If, however a person showing no such signs comes round, our interactions will mostly be business as usual. So, in case you are still having trouble pinpointing how all the numerous cases in the most affected countries happen, consider the possibilities that these simple everyday practices can invoke.

Without sounding like an alarmist, – which I am not – and I kid you not, it turns out that the worst is yet to come. According to verifiable facts, before this is over, cases of infections and death from the virus has to peak globally and, i.e. it has to reach a maximum number of cases and then start dropping. For example, experts are describing peaking and dropping in this context like a normal curve (as shown in the image below). In most places unfortunately, the peak is still a long shot away, or we hope not.

To better understand the gravity, consider the fact for instance that, every new case that is discovered today happened about 14 days previously. It means, before a person really start showing symptoms, he may have already unwittingly and unwillingly spread the infection and the more people that are yet to show symptoms, the more the spread. 

It also turns out that asking people to stay at home is actually government's strategy of hiding the fact that they are neither able nor prepared to adequately deal with this pandemic, not now, not in the nearest future. So as usual, government is taking care of its business. Saving cost, saving resources, keeping things simple. It also turns out however that this is not only in the government's interest. 

To clarify, let us do a simple analysis here. We know that people getting sick from the virus are infecting friends and family members, colleagues, complete strangers and perhapd the most vulnerable are health practitioners. Let us consider the case of health practitioners. Health practitioners and all first responders all over the world are getting infected, sick and (can) also die from the infections. It can actually be hypothesised that the ones really at risk are these responders. Going by some other verifiable facts, most facilities are running out of supplies and a good number of responders have either called in sick or become infected and died. So, if governments are advising that we stay at home so that we do not escalate the current situation, maybe they are protecting their medical workforce by trying to reduce pressure on these individuals and reduce exposing them to more risk. We can equally ask: is the frenzy about saving gloves and face masks, is it about saving the doctors and nurses and responders or is it about not biting the fingers that feed us? We can engage in an endless debate about the why or what or who staying at home will help or we may ponder over the fact that all those governments that sing war songs and claim to be ready for the worst are apparently not really for anything, they have no adequate resources to handle a massive outbreaks anywhere not even in the UK or US. Ultimately, it turns out that asking people to stay at home and not spread the infection further is in the interest of everyone and beyond saving resources, government may also be saving lives.

I'm sure you're thinking: what about China? Did China not deal with it recently? Well, wait for this: no country has what China has and only a handful of countries can do what China did without serious repercussions. I’m sure you will have heard of the conspiracy around China’s claims. As such it is neither the correctness nor the wrongness of these claims nor the pound a penny conspiracies that I worry about. What I seek to do is to simply ask: if your elder brother or the super hero who you brought to beat a person that bullied you is advising you to forgive your bully and go home, do you think you need a better or safer advise?

Back to the Chinese and the Chinese government’s uniqueness and how. Not only does China have the largest population, Chinese laws also allow the Chinese government to monitor almost every activity of almost all living things in China any time, any day. Chinese government also collect and use data about every citizen including their biodata, phone details, social media presence, moment by moment movement, shopping history, medical conditions and, in fact everything (except may be in the case of a few privacy that upholds human dignity).

Going by popular narratives about China, the Chinese government knows who every Chinese citizen is and who the inhabitants are; the government know who people relate with, where people are and most likely what they do where they do it. And like most of your banks do on your birthday or how complete strangers on social media send you random birthday greetings, government can send text messages to people's phone in China when the need arises.

For instance, if Mr Chi Peng leaves home by 8:00am, his building’s CCTV and security system will show that he has gone out, the government has this data. If he took a taxi by 8:15am and got off by 8:45am at his office and pays by card or an app on his phone (which is encouraged if not enforced in China), the government knows where he went and how much he spent. With this just two simple activities, the government has terabyte of data about and around Mr Peng. They know he touched the lift's call button (& how many other people touched it before & after him). They know if he sneezed or coughed in the lift and again, how many people used the lift before and after his sneeze or cough; how many of them sneezed or coughed before or are coughing now? The same is true about the taxi he took; who the driver was and who used the taxi before and after him and so on.

Now, imagine if Mr Peng or any other person who used the lift or the same taxi before and after him tested positive to COVID-19, the government knows their current locations, who they have also been in contact with and so on. They can simply send them text messages of what to do, where to go or to stay in a safe place till they are safely taken up for treatment or isolation etcetera.

Do you still wonder how they can claim to have handled the pandemic regardless of the conspiracies? Now, imagine the country where you currently live, what laws, data sharing, and citizens’ monitoring systems and infrastructures are available and are allowed by human rights legislations in your country? Now compare that to the Chinese. How close or should I rather ask, how far? I bet it is nowhere close but far apart. So, do we still think staying at home is only in government's interest?

Like you may also have heard, there are so many conspiracy theories about why we're being asked to stay at home including the most ambitious one (in my view) about 5G launch. Even with that, and if your answer to the above questions is yes, we'll if I were you, I think I'll think again. Here's why; consider this scenario. Daddy and mummy left home and leave no food for the kids. The kids therefore sneaked out to get some mangoes from trees nearby. If a child falls from a tree and sustains fracture or dislocation, the parents will run around to get him treated, if they are caring. But who suffers the pain while the treatment lasts? Who will struggle with coping with orthopaedic casts and the physiotherapeutic sessions afterwards? Then what about the scar or the limp that the wound leaves behind even if it heals completely? Now what if the child's parents are not caring or are unable to help or have some other priorities? Would the child not have been better off not having the injury?

If the governments who pledged and promised to take care of us in any outbreak is hiding their unpreparedness to handle this pandemic and are now asking us to stay safe at home, doesn't that tell us something? 

I know again that we wonder what we will eat, how do we sustain life at home with limited to no provisions and other conditions that may not make saying at home easy. I know this puts a lot of people between the rock and a hard place. Yet again, I ask how would you prefer the story: as told by you or about you?

Someone also asked recently if the issues that may make staying at home only just started? If you complain that there is no food at home or there is no energy supply to keep yourselves entertained, did those conditions just start? I know just as you know that there are people in Italy and Spain who now wish they'd stayed at home or would have wished to stay at home if they could turn back the hands of time, if only they could.

In my honest opinion and in the verifiable facts available about this pandemic, the more we stay away from contagion, the shorter our stay will be; the more we take personal hygiene serious, the cleaner we will be and the more we stay at home now the shorter we will need to stay. Once those that may have contracted the virus stay at home, the nature of a healthy body is that it will fight the virus. The very many stories of immunisation – especially by inoculation – ought to have taugh us this. When people are immunised or inoculated, what is happening is that they are actually being given a form of the virus or diseases so as to ‘teach’ their bodies to recognise and fight the virus or disease by itself.

While I am not advocating that we get the virus and wait for our bodies to fight back, I am imagining how much lives, time are scarce resources we will save if we heed good advice in time and stay away from crowds and stop the chain of infection that will happen if people continue to mingle as usual. As ealier hinted at, the longer we take to heed and the more people continue business as usual, the longer we will have to stay, the only unfortunate difference at that time will be we will truly be willing to stay but it may come at a higher cost. The wise they say learn from the examples of others.

Like you, I hope this is over sooner than hoped and pray that we are rightly guided in our best interests and in the interest of humanity.